On the one hand, the early arrival of the aging population makes China's pension real estate facing a huge demand, on the other hand, developers are not prepared to generally face the problem of pension real estate profitability. What's more, many developers sell houses under the banner of pension real estate. At present, what kind of dilemma does China's pension real estate face? How can we solve this dilemma and really solve the elderly's demand for pension real estate? We try to find the answer through this topic.
For the construction of 300 mu old-age real estate, 1000 mu of land is often taken, and the remaining 700 Mu is used for housing development
Endowment real estate: the "enclosure movement" under the gimmick
If 2013 is known as the first year of pension real estate, then 2014 is the boiling year of domestic pension real estate.
With the continuous inclination and stimulation of the policy in the past two years, the pension real estate has rapidly entered the boiling period from wandering to waiting. All kinds of enterprises, big and small, are salivating for this cake. According to industry insiders, the business opportunities in China's pension market are about 4 trillion yuan at present, which is expected to increase to 13 trillion yuan by 2030. "Therefore, at present, the pattern of China's pension real estate has formed a tripartite pattern of" insurance department "," central enterprise department "and" real estate enterprise department ". In the real estate enterprise department alone, more than 30 enterprises have expanded pension real estate nationwide, and the national investment scale has exceeded 100 billion yuan."
It's just that the expert looks at the doorway while the layman looks at the bustle. In the real estate enterprises entering the practical stage, many real estate enterprises admit to reporters that although the constantly updated data demonstrate the good prospects of this industry, the actual development of pension real estate is difficult due to the difficulties in land acquisition, financial failure to connect, long profit cycle, excessive investment, unclear mode, insufficient payment capacity or no willingness to pay and other reasons. Not only that, some real estate enterprises have also launched a round of "enclosure movement" in the name of pension.
The loss situation is hard to break
"The traditional real estate business will enter a new stage after limited purchase and loan. The traditional real estate development in this new stage will not be as good as before. No matter the profit level or the market competitiveness, the traditional real estate developers have encountered new challenges, so they are considering transformation. " A person in Hangzhou's pension real estate industry, who did not want to be named, told our reporter. In recent two years, pension has become a very hot topic, so for many real estate developers, they can't do pension real estate as a whole, but there are quite a lot of real estate developers put the breakthrough of transformation on pension.
Although many enterprises enter into pension real estate, the problem of profit is still the biggest dilemma in front of them. The industry insiders pointed out that perfect medical supporting, reasonable architectural design and humanized service system are all essential elements in the early stage of the development of the pension industry, which undoubtedly requires long-term and high-value capital investment. At the same time, the characteristics of long investment and long return determine that service is the ultimate source of profit for the elderly care industry. However, the domestic elderly care industry is in a relatively short-term stage, the cost in the early stage cannot be recovered, and the daily income and expenditure cannot be balanced. All of these have brought relatively large capital pressure to the operation of the elderly care industry, resulting in profit dilemma.
According to the relevant person in charge of the real estate financial department of a large securities firm, in order to relieve the capital pressure, some elderly real estate projects will provide services through membership system by collecting one-time entry fee or membership fee, which can recover most of the investment funds in the early stage of project operation. For example, the Xingbao central elderly care community jointly established by Fosun Group and Fengbao investment group, which opened in May last year, needs to pay a monthly self-care fee ranging from 7100 to 30000 yuan in addition to a one-time occupancy fee of about 50000 yuan.
In addition, Shanghai's Tiandi health city is also known as "sky high" pension. According to our reporter, there are two consumption modes in Tiandi health city at present, one is the annual consumption card of 100000 yuan, which is used to pay for all service consumption within one year; the other is the membership card of "Tianyu club" of 1-1.5 million yuan, and then the membership management fee of 3000 yuan is paid every year.
To this end, Yan Yuejin, a researcher at Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, told our reporter that for most of the current special investment in pension real estate development enterprises, it is easier to eat them in the development of pension real estate, which may be as long as 30 years of recovery cycle and huge capital investment.
In April, 80% of Beijing Changqing international senior apartment Co., Ltd. was listed for sale. The company is owned by Beijing urban construction (600266, stock bar) and China Red Cross Foundation. Its development project is Beijing yaoyang international senior apartment. In 2012, Beijing evergreen lost 50.427 million yuan, and in 2013, it lost 49.261 million yuan.
However, this is only a microcosm of the loss of domestic pension institutions. Because occupancy rate is the decisive condition to ensure the profitability of pension real estate. Generally speaking, only when the occupancy rate of the nursing home reaches 70% ~ 80%, can the profit and loss balance be realized. In China, there are few institutions with good occupancy rate.
"Because the pension real estate is closer to the business, it tests the operation ability, and because the speed of payment collection is slow, it also tests the capital chain of the enterprise. And because there is no financing channel for domestic pension real estate, there is considerable pressure on investment enterprises. " The head of the real estate finance department of a financial institution in Shanghai told our reporter.
"Enclosure movement" in the name of providing for the aged
It is worth noting that many well-known real estate enterprises also admitted to our reporter that it is not a good thing that all kinds of capital rush into the pension industry. Nowadays, the domestic pension real estate market is a mixture of fish and dragons. The pension real estate that some enterprises engage in is more like a "enclosure movement" in the name of pension. However, there are different opinions on how to find the right development direction for pension real estate.
"Because it is the experimental stage of the development of the old-age real estate, one of the outstanding performance is that the development mode presents a chaotic situation. Some developers in the name of pension real estate, in fact, is low-cost enclosure, and then sell housing. " One industry source, who declined to be named, said.
Another Shanghai real estate celebrity who didn't want to be named told our reporter that while the housing, commercial and other real estate are under strict control, the state often has certain policy support for the elderly real estate with the nature of public welfare. Some developers take the opportunity to exploit the loopholes of the policy and make money by developing the elderly real estate. There are also some pension real estate projects invested by the insurance industry, which require the government to allocate land in the name of pension, but secretly "rent for sale" to obtain profits. These are the behaviors of developers "selling dog meat with sheep's head".
Chen Baocun, Secretary General of quanjinglian health care and elderly care real estate committee, said that he understood that there was a project, which took 6000 mu of land, but only designed 60 elderly care apartment beds in total, obviously "selling dog meat by hanging sheep's head".
In response, Zhang Hongwei, director of Tongce consulting research center, pointed out that in the context of increasingly high land prices, pension real estate has become a tool of "enclosure movement" for development enterprises. According to the international experience, in order to take good care of the elderly's food, clothing, housing and transportation, the pension real estate is generally very small, 300 mu has been a lot. However, in China, when building 300 mu old-age real estate, 1000 mu of land is often taken, and the remaining 700 Mu is used for supporting and residential development, so as to realize overall profitability.
There is no mature business model of pension real estate
In the reality of difficult profits, many so-called pension projects actually have other purposes. Industry insiders said that for pension projects, the investment return cycle is long. Many developers take land under the guise of pension and actually carry out real estate development in order to quickly collect funds. Because real pension real estate should be called pension industry, its core content is not development, but service. The service operation of the pension industry involves seamless connection with medical institutions, and supporting facilities should meet the needs of the elderly. However, it can not be avoided that this is a big problem for the real estate enterprises that always pursue "high turnover, short and smooth".
Poly Real estate related people told our reporter that "pension industry" looks beautiful, but the road to beautiful prospects is not smooth. The huge investment and slow income make the development of pension industry rely on the support of national supporting policies. In foreign countries, the government will give some preferential policies in tax, land acquisition, loan and other aspects to the pension real estate, but at present, no matter in the market environment or the matching of policies and standards, it is difficult to support the overall development of the pension industry in China.
It is reported that, as the main profit point of developers is to obtain cheap land, through holding for a certain period of time, waiting for the appreciation of land, and in the conceptual design, planning and design